Hurricane season begins with potential tropical system likely to impact Florida
ORLANDO, Florida. – The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway and forecasters are already tracking activity in the tropics.
A large area of disturbed weather located near the Yucatan Peninsula interacts with an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and produces a broad region of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center said the system is likely to become a tropical depression, possibly a tropical storm, by the weekend as it moves northeast into the Northwest Sea. Caribbean, southeastern Gulf of Mexico and crosses the Florida peninsula.
“Regardless of development, local heavy rains are likely in parts of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala and Belize over the next two days, spreading into western Cuba, southern of Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.”
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On Wednesday morning, the chances of development are 80% over the next 5 days.
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If the system turns into a tropical storm, it would be called Alex, the first named storm of the season.
FOX Team 35 Storm meteorologist Allison Gargaro said the Euro model shows the system’s track crossing the Florida peninsula as it approaches our observing area on Saturday. The GFS model keeps our viewing area mostly dry, but the FOX 35 Storm team monitors the system.
“If we see this track further north, it looks like the heaviest rainy day is Saturday,” Gargaro said.
LINK: Follow the tropics on the FOX 35 Orlando Hurricane Center
The second system monitored is a weak surface trough located about 200 miles northeast of the central Bahamas that is producing disorganized shower activity, according to the NHC.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts another above-average Atlantic hurricane season for the 2022 season, marking the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.
This season, NOAA predicts between 14 and 21 named storms, with between 6 and 10 of them becoming hurricanes. Of those 10, NOAA said three to six could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).
The list of names you might hear from our FOX 35 Storm Team meteorologists this year are:
Hurricane season runs until November 30.