Colorado State University raises forecast for 2022 hurricane season
ORLANDO, Florida. – Colorado State University forecasters have increased the number of named storms since their preseason forecast in April.
The university now calls 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
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Each category has increased by one since the April release. It may not seem like much, but in addition to the increase in the number of storms, the predicted ACE has also increased significantly.
ACE stands for Accumulated Cyclonic Energy and is the true measure of the intensity of a hurricane season. The ACE measures the energy used by a tropical system during its lifetime.
For perspective, 2021 ended with an ACE of 145.7. And 2020 ended with an ACE of 179.8. The most active season in terms of ACE in recent memory was 2005, ending with a value of 245.3.
2020 had more named storms than 2005, but storms overall in 2005 were more intense, giving that season a much higher ACE.
Even though the ACE for the 2022 season is expected to be even higher, that does not mean that this particular storm(s) would impact land.
For example, during the 2021 hurricane season, Category 4 Sam became an extremely powerful Category 4 storm, but remained over open Atlantic waters. Its high ACE value increased the seasonal ACE number without ever affecting the earth.
The increased confidence in the likely lack of El Nino during the summer and fall is the reason for the increase in forecasts.
CSU’s next update will be in August, before the peak of hurricane season. Hurricane season lasts until November 30.
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